Bold claim first: China is rapidly expanding its submarine production to the point where it could outpace the United States in launching new boats, and that shift is reshaping the balance of naval power. But here’s where it gets controversial: launching subs and commissioning them into active service aren’t the same thing, and the metric used matters a lot for understanding real-world impact.
A new analysis from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) examines China’s nuclear-powered submarine program, noting that Beijing has accelerated the pace over the past five years. The study tracks both ballistic-m missile submarines (SSBNs) and attack submarines (SSNs) and concludes that, between 2021 and 2025, China launched more submarines than the United States—10 vs. 7—and accumulated more tonnage—about 79,000 tons for China versus 55,500 tons for the U.S.—based on shipyard satellite imagery and other proxy indicators. It’s important to remember that these figures reflect submarines launched, not necessarily completed or added to active fleets.
The contrast with the 2016–2020 period is striking: China launched three submarines totaling roughly 23,000 tons, while the U.S. added seven boats totaling about 55,500 tons. Even so, the reported numbers primarily reflect construction activity and shipyard outputs rather than current active-duty strength, where the United States still holds a substantial lead.
As of early 2025, IISS puts China at 12 active nuclear-powered submarines (six SSBNs and six SSNs), with the United States possessing 65 total submarines, including 14 SSBNs. China also operates a sizable fleet of conventionally powered submarines (46 boats), a category the U.S. does not actively maintain in the same way since it relies on nuclear-powered boats. Conventional subs require more frequent refueling and maintenance, influencing how quickly a navy can deploy new underwater capabilities.
To support its growing nuclear submarine fleet, China has expanded Bohai’s Huludao shipyard—home to Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co.—as highlighted in the IISS report, Boomtime at Bohai. This expansion aligns with a broader assessment from the Congressional Research Service (CRS) that the U.S. Navy is not hitting its submarine-building goals, delivering roughly 1.1–1.2 submarines per year since 2022, instead of the target of two Virginia-class attack boats annually.
In parallel, the U.S. is pursuing the Columbia-class ballistic-missile submarine program, but it has experienced delays, with the lead ship USS District of Columbia projected to be delivered around 2028, according to Navy officials cited by Breaking Defense.
The IISS characterizes the larger number of Chinese boats operating in national waters as a growing challenge for the United States and its Western allies, who must boost their own production to keep pace. Among the notable points: two Type-094 SSBNs have reportedly been launched from Huludao, contributing to China’s expanding nuclear triad alongside land-based intercontinental missiles and bombers. More advanced SSBNs, such as the Type-096, are expected to begin production at Bohai within this decade, potentially entering service in the late 2020s or early 2030s.
Beyond ballistic-missile submarines, the PLA Navy has launched at least six guided-missile submarines (SSGNs) with vertical launch systems (VLS). These VLS-equipped boats could carry missiles with high-speed anti-ship capabilities that were showcased during China’s Victory Day parade in Beijing last year.
Nevertheless, the IISS notes a potential quality gap: Chinese submarine designs are believed to lag behind U.S. and European counterparts in quietness and stealth. Quiet propulsion and hull design are critical for survivability at sea, and the vaunted stealth edge remains with American submarines. Still, quantity matters in naval warfare, and China already operates the world’s largest fleet of surface combatants in addition to its submarine force.
The U.S. faces internal pressures as well. Navy leadership has acknowledged difficulties in meeting rapid production goals, with senior officials describing programs as facing significant schedule and budget pressures. The CRS warns of a looming “valley” in submarine numbers—projected to hit a nadir around 2030 as aging Los Angeles-class boats retire—and suggests recovery to about 50 attack submarines may not occur until 2032, assuming ambitious construction targets are met. There is an added potential constraint: selling some Virginia-class submarines to allies under the AUKUS arrangement could constrain short-term growth.
The broader takeaway is nuanced: while China is increasing its submarine-launch rate and expanding its underwater fleet, the immediate impact on sea control depends on multiple factors, including build quality, crew training, maintenance, and how quickly new boats enter active service. The trend signals a shift in the regional balance and a heightened imperative for U.S. and allied shipyards to accelerate production and sustain deterrence.
Do you think the speed of China’s submarine construction will translate into a decisive edge, or will U.S. advantage in quality, training, and longer-range deterrence still tip the scales? Share your thoughts below.
