Get ready for the most unpredictable Oscar race in years! The 98th Academy Awards nominations have just dropped, and the competition is fiercer than ever. With a record-breaking 16 nominations, Sinners has emerged as a powerhouse, surpassing the previous record held by classics like All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land. But here's the twist: despite its dominance, Sinners faces a formidable challenger in One Battle After Another, which has already clinched top honors at the Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards. Is this the year the Oscars defy expectations?
Sinners didn’t just break records—it landed a nomination in every plausible category, a feat none of its top contenders could match. One Battle After Another missed out on Best Actress, Hamnet skipped Best Supporting Actor and key technical categories, and Frankenstein overlooked Best Director and Visual Effects. But does this make Sinners the undeniable frontrunner? Not so fast. History shows that the film with the most nominations only wins Best Picture about 38% of the time since the Academy adopted ranked-choice voting. Yet, with 16 nominations—three more than its closest rival—Sinners feels like a statement.
And this is the part most people miss: Both Sinners and One Battle After Another are distributed by Warner Bros., which is ironically being sold amidst this Oscar frenzy. This hasn’t happened in over half a century—the last time two clear frontrunners from the same studio battled it out was in 1974 with Chinatown and The Godfather Part II! Will Warner Bros. play it safe and promote both equally, or will personal reps push their clients to the limit?
Controversial take alert: Some industry insiders whisper that Sinners might edge out One Battle After Another due to its broader appeal and nomination sweep. But is this just wishful thinking, or a legitimate prediction? And what does this say about the Academy’s evolving tastes in an era of diverse storytelling?
Below, Scott Feinberg breaks down his predictions for all 24 Oscar categories, from Best Picture to Best Live Action Short. The final voting begins on February 26, culminating in the ceremony hosted by Conan O’Brien on March 15. Who do you think will take home the gold? Let the debates begin—and don’t forget to share your thoughts in the comments!
Best Picture
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
3. Hamnet (Focus)
4. Sentimental Value (Neon)
5. Marty Supreme (A24)
6. Train Dreams (Netflix)
7. Frankenstein (Netflix)
8. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
9. The Secret Agent (Neon)
10. Bugonia (Focus)
Best Director
1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
2. Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
3. Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
4. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
5. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
Best Actor
1. Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
2. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
4. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
5. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
Best Actress
1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
2. Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)
3. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
4. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
5. Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value)
2. Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
3. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
4. Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another)
5. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
2. Amy Madigan (Weapons)
3. Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
4. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Train Dreams
4. Bugonia
5. Frankenstein
Best Original Screenplay
1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Marty Supreme
4. It Was Just an Accident
5. Blue Moon
Best International Feature
1. Sentimental Value (Norway)
2. The Secret Agent (Brazil)
3. It Was Just an Accident (France)
4. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
5. Sirāt (Spain)
Best Documentary Feature
1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. The Alabama Solution
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
4. Come See Me in the Good Light
5. Cutting Through Rocks
Best Animated Feature
1. KPop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
5. Elio
Best Casting
1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. The Secret Agent
Best Cinematography
1. Train Dreams
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
Best Costume Design
1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Film Editing
1. F1
2. One Battle After Another
3. Sinners
4. Marty Supreme
5. Sentimental Value
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Frankenstein
2. The Smashing Machine
3. Sinners
4. Kokuho
5. The Ugly Stepsister
Best Original Score
1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Frankenstein
4. Hamnet
5. Bugonia
Best Original Song
1. “Golden” (KPop Demon Hunters)
2. “I Lied to You” (Sinners)
3. “Dear Me” (Diane Warren: Relentless)
4. “Train Dreams” (Train Dreams)
5. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” (Viva Verdi!)
Best Production Design
1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. One Battle After Another
Best Sound
1. F1
2. Sinners
3. Frankenstein
4. One Battle After Another
5. Sirāt
Best Visual Effects
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. F1
3. Sinners
4. Jurassic World Rebirth
5. The Lost Bus
Best Animated Short
1. Retirement Plan
2. The Girl Who Cried Pearls
3. Forevergreen
4. The Three Sisters
5. Butterfly
Best Documentary Short
1. All the Empty Rooms
2. Armed Only with a Camera
3. Children No More
4. Perfectly a Strangeness
5. The Devil Is Busy
Best Live Action Short
1. Two People Exchanging Saliva
2. The Singers
3. A Friend of Dorothy
4. Jane Austen’s Period Drama
5. Butcher’s Stain
Final Note: Scott’s predictions are based on extensive analysis, not personal preferences. What do you think? Will Sinners sweep, or will One Battle After Another pull off an upset? Let the Oscar debates begin!
